目录 总序 前言 Unit One Passage A Can We Survive on the Moon? Passage B Chasing the Moon
Unit Two Passage A Running on Empty? (1) Passage B Running on Empty? (2)
Unit Three Passage A Biofuels Deemed a Greenhouse Threat Passage B Studies Say Clearing Land for Biofuels Will Aid Warming
Unit Four Passage A Malware Goes Mobile (1) Passage B Malware Goes Mobile (2)
Unit Five Passage A Is Your Car Smarter Than You Are? (1) Passage B Is Your Car Smarter Than You Are? (2)
Unit Six Passage A The Memory Hacker Passage B Sweet Memories
Unit Seven Passage A Robots vs. Humans in Space： Both Will Be Required Passage B The Year in Robots
Unit Eight Passage A Evidence-based Fitness Programs Passage B Multigenerational Programming
Unit Nine Passage A New Predictor of Disease (1) Passage 13 New Predictor of Disease (2)
Unit Ten Passage A Sharks Passage 13 Sustainable Fisheries
Unit Eleven Passage A The Phenomenon of Aging Passage 13 Calorie Restriction： Is This Anti-aging Diet Worth a Try?
Unit Twelve Passage A The Rise of Renewable Energy (1) Passage 13 The Rise of Renewable Energy (2)
Unit Thirteen Passage A Window on the Extreme Universe (1) Passage 13 Window on the Extreme Universe (2)
Unit Fourteen Passage A Are Aliens among Us? (1) Passage 13 Are Aliens among Us? (2)
Unit Fifteen Passage A Science 2.0-Is Open Access Science the Future? (1) Passage 13 Science 2.0-Is Open Access Science the Future? (2)
Unit Sixteen Passage A Genetically Modified Foods： Are They Safe? (1) Passage 13 Genetically Modified Foods： Are They Safe? (2)
Key to the Exercises
内容摘要 Running on Empty？ （I） On a rainy day last month, four drummers, three guitarists, a bagpiper, two didgeridoo players and 186 others assembled in a rural English town to discuss turning their neighborhoods into low-impact communities built around farming, arts and crafts and herbal medicine. After communal meditation and a few speeches, those present gathered in small groupsto discuss everything from transport without oil to engaging local politicians in the "Transition Towns movements stated aim: reducing their carbon footprint2 in response to concerns over diminishing hydrocarbon reserves as well as global warming. The mood in the group discussing energy was somber. One former civil engineer3 predicted the demise of the light bulb within a decade and derided the idea that market forces and human ingenuity could save the planet, laughing it off as "the magic wand" theory. For years, such meetings have been dismissed as eccentric. Most of the worlds oil executives, government ministers, analysts and consultants reject the "peak oil theory —— the notion based on the 1950s work of Marion King Hubert, a Shell geologist, that crude production will soon enter terminal decline. They say it understates remaining reserves, plays down the contribution of technological advances and ignores the role of market forces in shaping future supply. But with the oil price at a record $126 a barrel, more than 1,000 percent higher than a decade ago, fears of the end of the hydrocarbon age have seeped into the mainstream. Many in the industry itself now accept that supply constraints are shaping the price as much as rampant demand. Calls for greater investment to ease these constraints formed the crux of many of the discussions at last months meeting in Rome between energy ministers of the worlds main oil producers and consumers. So are the peak oilists right？ A series of recent events certainly appear to lend credence to those who argue that the worlds ageing oilfields are being sucked dry amid Chinas and Indias determination to lift themselves out of poverty and the wests reluctance to give up the luxuries of modem oil-dependent life. The fact that Russias oil production declined almost half a percentage point in April, the first drop in a decade, was shocking enough news from the worlds second biggest oil producer, whose output was growing at a rate of 12 percent just five years ago. Just days later Saudi Arabia6, the worlds biggest oil producer and by far the largest exporter, confirmed it had put on hold plans to increase the kingdoms production capacity. King Abdullah7, the countrys ruler, put it more bluntly: "I keep no secret from you that, when there were some new finds, I told them, No, leave it in the ground, our children need it." Most other forecasts show the world will need Saudi Arabias oil. Thus the kingdoms reluctance to invest further in its fields has led some to ask whether Saudi Arabia can boost production or whether, after 75 years, the worlds biggest oil deposit has been cashed. The announcement that Saudi Arabia would pump slightly more oil did little to ease prices because it failed to reduce concerns over supply: when the kingdom produces more oil, it eats into its cushion of spare supply. This means such measures sometimes backfire, driving prices higher. One problem is that nobody really knows what is going on inside Saudi Arabias oil industry. Riyadh is so guarded that analysts from Sanford Bernstein9, the financial services company, took to spying on its activity via satellite. They spent nine months monitoring the countrys drilling activities and measuring whether Ghawarl~, the worlds biggest oil-field, had subsided. Their conclusion: Saudi Arabia has to work harder than the countrys engineers and geologists expected in 2004 to squeeze more out of the northern part of the ageing Ghawar field. Matthew Simmons, an energy investment banker, has a bleaker view of Ghawars health. He took the news that Saudi Arabia was not planning to expand to 15m b/d" as further evidence that the kingdom was struggling to ward off a collapse of its oilfields. With his book Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economyt2, published in 2005, Mr. Simmons, more than any other individual, laid the seeds of doubt over Saudi Arabias future reliability. Poring over 200 technical papers written by engineers over 20 years, some stored electronically and others gathering dust, he uncovered evidence the kingdoms fields were far more complicated to tap and declining more quickly than the secretive nation was willing to reveal. Less well known, but equally damning, is his study of the rest of the worlds oilfields. Mr. Simmons launched his project in 2001 after none of the analysts brought in to help the US Central Intelligence Agency13 map the worlds remaining big sources of oil came up with answers that satisfied him. He found that the world depends on just a few giant, old, declining oilfields and that almost nothing to match them has been discovered since the 1970s. One in every five barrels of oil consumed each day is pumped from a field that is more than 40 years old. Output declines as an oilfield ages ____ sometimes dramatically. The same trend____though at a slower pace____is plaguing most fields around the world, possibly including the four biggest: Ghawar, Cantarell, Kuwaits Burgan and Chinas Daqing. This means running to stand still: each year as much as two-thirds of new oil supply capacity goes towards covering for the slowdown at ageing fields. Mr. Simmons work is potent fodder for peak oilists, who espouse their gloomy views of the future on websites ranging from those with an academic air to more alarmist ones that come complete with advertisements for freeze-dried food and survival guides. Mr. Simmons knows his peak oil views have moved him towards the fringes of a business in which he used to occupy a far more central position. Fears over supply increasingly extend to the corner offices of international oil companies. A rapidly growing number of industry executives and ministers, believe the world is running out of "easy oil". They advocate that consumers, who rely on oil for everything from light to lipstick, should be less wasteful. Industry executives admit that fields in the developed world, such as those in the North Sea and Alaska, are about to peak. Natural gas, coal, corn, sugar cane, algae and turkey innards are promising alternative sources that could fuel Chinas new love affair with the car, they say. Meanwhile the biggest oilfield, as Joseph Stanislaw, adviser to Deloitte Consulting~7, likes to point out, lies beneath Detroit. In other words, millions of barrels a day of oil could be saved if Americans traded in their gas-guzzlers for more efficient vehicles. All of this means global production will follow an "undulating plateau for one or more decades before declining slowly", says Peter Jackson of Cambridge Energy Research Associates19, an industry consulting firm. After studying its oil production and resources database, the group concluded that it saw no decline in the worlds ability to produce oil before 2030. But the ride could yet prove a bumpy one, even CERA admits. Saudi Arabias spare capacity is at its lowest level in a generation, having been eaten into by China and other fuel-hungry customers. This has already added a sizeable premium to international oil prices, though no one has a grasp of exactly how much. Meanwhile, the long-term alternatives have serious downsides. Regarding power of the solar, wind and turkey-gut varieties, even the most optimistic forecasts say these will remain a small fraction of the overall energy mix. In fact, even if all the policies to increase renewable fuels and to use oil more efficiently were to be enacted immediately, the world would still need OPECsdaily production to increase by 11.5m barrels by 2030, the bulk of which would have to come from Saudi Arabia, the International Energy Agencysays. That is a tall order. It is 50-plus percent more than the amount by
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