第六感：强化组织学习的情景训练法 THE SIXTH SENSE - ACCELERATING ORGANISATIONAL

This book is about organizational survival: the reasons why organizations do not always survive, and what can be done about it. Survival means creating value for stakeholders, and the survival problem starts with uncertainty, change and the need for organizations to adapt to shifting needs and market conditions. The key question is 'Why are organizations slow to change and adapt?' Unsuccessful organizations are distinguished by their failure to overcome thinking and behavioural flaws at personal, organizational and community levels. In this book, we explain what these flaws are and how the scenario approach helps senior managers and organizations to overcome them. Our approach is based on reasoning, research, real world observations - and a long track record developing scenario-based thinking, combining the most effective elements of the many scenario approaches that have been tried over time. This book explains: Why scenario thinking is increasingly important: how it has developed as an approach that can help build successful strategies and organizations. How scenarios are valuable in overcoming an obstacle or problem - current or potential - by enabling innovation and creative thinking 'outside the box'. How scenario thinking can be used to resolve organizational flaws by enhancing the strategic conversation. How to understand the scenario approach in the context of effective organizational learning and development. How to ensure that scenario thinking is included in a wider strategic and organizational learning framework, essential for organizational survival. Outlining the benefits and techniques of scenario thinking The Sixth Sense shows that scenario thinking is purposeful and effective in driving strategy and organizational development towards managerial and organizational success.

Kees van der Heijden (Scotland) is Director of the Centre for Scenario Planning and Future Studies, the Graduate School of Business at the University of Strathclyde, U.K.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

INTRODUCTION

The Quest for a Clear Vision of the Future

Unknown Variables, Uncertain Future

The Significance of Scenario Thinking

Developing the Sixth Sense-the Approach to Scenario Thinking

How this Book is Organized

1.PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE

Understanding Organizational Success

Success and Failure are Inevitable

Understanding success by understanding failure

Explaining the Sharpbenders Research: Why Organizations Fail

Maintaining Organizational Performance: Problems

Sustaining Competitive Advantage-the Battle of Canon and Xerox

Yahoo!-Competing in Fast-moving Markets

Building a Colourful New Future Brick by Brick-the Story of Lego

Success Stories

Providing Customer Value-the Rise of Tetra Pak

Entering New Markets and Maintaining Growth-Nokia Answers the Call

Barriers to Strategic Success

Lessons Learned

Creating Value-The Difference Between Success and Failure

Value is Created in a Domain of Scarcity

Summary: Understanding the Barriers to Scenario Planning

2.HOW MANAGERS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE

Understanding Management Thinking

Routines in Management Thinking

Over-reliance on Routines: Success Formulas and Managerial Thinking

Biases in thinking

The Relevance of Framing Flaws

How a Failed Product Launch Actually Boosted Sales: the Sparkle of New Coke

Confirmation Bias

Hindsight Bias

The Problem of Overconfidence

The Limitations of Judgemental Forecasting

Decision Avoidance

Escalation of Commitment

Bolstering, Procrastination and Buck-Passing

Example of a Management Team Facing a Decision Dilemma

Thinking Flaws: A Synthesis

Overcoming Strategic Inertia: the Potential Benefits of Scenario Planning

A Scenario is not a Forecast of the Future

Scenarios Focus on Key Uncertainties and Certainties About the Future

Scenarios Help Identify Information to Anticipate How the Future will Unfold

Typical Outcomes of the Scenario Planning Process

Summary: Overcoming Thinking Flaws with Scenario Planning

Summary Checklist-the Limits to Managerial Thinking

3.HOW ORGANIZATIONS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE

Flaws in Organizational Thinking

Communication Difficulties

Group-think in Organizations

Fragmentation in Organizations

Limitations Imposed by Identity

Balancing Change and Constancy

Overcoming the Limits of Organizational Identity: the Example of IBM

Organizational Lock-in

Understanding Organizational Lock-in

The Consequences of Organizational Feedback Loops and Lock-in

……

4.THE IMPACT OF CULTURE AND CULTURAL ASSUMPTIONS ON STRATEGY

5.SHAPING THE FUTURE:THE EMERGENCE OF MODERN SCENARIO TECHNIQUES

6.DEVELOPING THE SKILLS FOR LONG-TERM SURVIVAL AND SUCCESS:PRINCIPLES OF THE SCENARIO PROCESS

7.SCENARIO PLANNING IN THE ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT

8.SCENARIO PLANNING:TAKING CHARGE OF THE FUTURE

SUMMARY

GLOSSARY

REFERENCES

INDEX